This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering that is a free card and that I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first chair into it a few weeks back and I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at that $25k prize, then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually aren’t any cash game guards this week for me but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the battle and I believe she will be the fighter heading for takedowns. I really don’t understand how high her ceiling is in cash games it doesn’t really matter too much since we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d anticipate about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly as there are a lot of scrambles and the grappling improvements really add up. I anticipate this to be a very fun fight, but it ought to be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find a minimum of 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be amazed if Smolka did not get that with a triumph. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle I hope to remain standing, I’ve quite a bit of curiosity in this fight. I think it will be an action-packed struggle and I think someone gets pumped out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so I think a KO from either guy would have a fantastic chance to set them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m picking the underdog to acquire the knockout and I expect Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I will have this fight in over half my lineups, but that I will probably have at least double the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it’s a better GPP struggle than it’s for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for money since he’s an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I’ll have a good amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that wages and I really don’t see that occurring. When he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he probably scores mid 70’s and at his price tag which will not win anyone a GPP. I really don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it has to be a KO from him to pay off that salary and I am not inclined to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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