UFC 236 occurs Saturday night in Atlanta, and you can watch the five-fight principal card reside on ESPN+. The card is ripe with fascinating struggles throughout the night, but a vast majority of fans will probably be most-interested in the event’s closing two fights for its interim middleweight and lightweight names.
We have you covered with comprehensive gambling analysis on the primary and co-main event…
Max Holloway & Dustin Poirier Rematch for Lightweight Gold
Can Kelvin Gastelum Steal Israel Adesanya’s Spotlight?
… but that doesn’t mean we still can’t find out a thing or 2 on the night’s extra 11 fights!
What follows is a brief breakdown on every matchup at UFC 236 in an effort to learn enough about each fighter to make a more educated bet on them if your heart needs.
UFC 236
Interim Lightweight Title Fight: Max Holloway (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier (+165)
Poirier was on a war path since returning to lightweight in April, 2015. Overall, he’s won eight of the last 10 battles and suffered only 1 loss (KO into Michael Johnson) and one no contest in his first battle against Eddie Alvarez. Poirier ranks first among active UFC lightweights in dramatic differential per second at +2.69.
The two Poirier (7.11 strikes per second ) and Holloway (6.9) rank among the top-five highest-volume strikers in the entire UFC. Holloway’s quantity is like an avalanche that becomes more-and-more overwhelming as the battle continues.
Holloway’s last fight was arguably the finest championship functionality in UFC history. Overall, his 290 significant strikes in a struggle broke the UFC tournament album.
Holloway started the week as a -230 favorite, but action has arrived in greatly on Poirier ever since.
Interim Middleweight Title Fight: Kelvin Gastelum (+150) vs. Israel Adesanya (-185)
Gastelum was able to record a minumum of one knockdown against former champions Jacare Souza, Michael Bisping, Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort during his hellacious run through the middleweight division. His constant barrages of one-two mixtures have been difficult for practically all his opponents do deal with during his career.
Israel’The previous Stylebender’ Adesanya is a former Glory Kickboxing champion who has rung up a 16-0 record to start his mixed martial arts profession. He won’t need anything related to Gastelum — a country championship wrestler in high school — on the floor, but we’ve yet to see someone come near out-classing Adesanya on the toes during his five UFC wins.
Adesanya opened the week as a -175 favorite, but has since moved up to -185 supporting the public’s support.
Light Heavyweight Fight: Eryk Anders (-200) vs. Khalil Rountree (+160)
Anders played linebacker under Nick Saban at Alabama from 2006-2009 before starting his mixed martial arts career. All three of Anders’ career losses have come in his last four fights, but these were just two split-decision losses along with one TKO reduction via referee stoppage during his short-notice light heavyweight debut against Thiago Santos, who’ll fight Jon Jones to the branch’s championship in July.
Rountree listed the biggest success of his career at UFC 226 against long-time championship kickboxer Gokhan Saki, but has been subsequently knocked out by increasing contender Johnny Walker last November. Rountree’s career striking differential of -0.99 has made it tough for him to win fights by any way aside from a conclusion, and he has accordingly lost both of his livelihood UFC fights that have made it past the first round.
Welterweight Fight: Alan Jouban (-120) vs. Dwight Grant (-110)
Jouban will be giving up a five-inch reach benefit to Grant. This is uncharted territory for Jouban throughout his 11-fight UFC profession, but he’s 3-1 in conflicts with a reach benefit of at least three inches. Meanwhile, the Grant is 1-1 at the UFC with a victory over Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (75-inch reach) and a split-decision reduction to Zak Ottow (72-inch reach).
The x-factor within this struggle could end up being quantity. Jouban finds himself among the top-10 welterweights in UFC history in knockdowns landed (No. 4), significant strike precision (No. 7), strikes per second (No. 3) and striking differential (No. 4).
Light Heavyweight Fight: Ovince Saint Preux (-110) vs. Nikita Krylov (-120)
Krylov has quite literally had a fight go to the judges in 30 career MMA fights. Including 10 fights within the Octagon, which were featured three wins by TKO/KO and three by entry in contrast to three declines by submission as well as one by TKO.
This is actually a rematch from UFC 171, when OSP defeated Krylov by first-round submission. The end comprised Saint Preux’s signature entry: The Von Flue choke.
UFC 236 Prelims
Lightweight Fight: Jalin Turner (-140) vs. Matt Frevola (+110)
Turner boasts massive height (6-foot-3 vs. 5-foot-9) and reach (77 inches vs. 71) benefits over Frevola, although that edge could be mitigated if the latter fighter is able to instigate his takedown-heavy assault. Turner was last seen starching Callan Potter in only 53 seconds back in UFC 234 in February.
Flyweight Fight: Wilson Reis (+130) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (-160)
Reis is presently the UFC’s No. 4 ranked flyweight ahead of his bout with fifth-ranked Alexandre Pantoja. Although Reis has dropped three of his last four fights, they’ve come from a high-level competitors such as John Moraga, present flyweight champion Henry Cejudo and former champion Demetrious Johnson. The two Reis (12:08) and Pantoja (11:58) have average combat times that could indicate we will see this fight last into the next round.
Welterweight Fight: Max Griffin (-105) vs. Zelim Imadaev (-125)
Imadaev opened the week with -115 chances. Public support has come in on the undefeated Russian, who has won all eight of the struggles by TKO or KO. He is making his debut inside the octagon against Max Griffin, who has dropped four of the last six fights dating back to August, 2016. There is a bit of terrible blood here, as Griffin sparred with Imadaev once upon a time and had this to say about his competitor…
“He is an ass, man. He is not a fantastic man… I don’t like the man… I am excited about showing him what it is like.”
Bantamweight Fight: Boston Salmon (-150) vs. Khalid Taha (+120)
Boston’Boom Boom’ Salmon has only lost once in seven career conflicts (by split-decision). Salmon won his last fight against Ricky Turcios on the debut episode of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He’ll maintain a four-inch height benefit of Taha, who has lost two of his last 3 fights. Backing Salmon in his early -135 odds was among my favorite bets on the card, but he offers a bit of value at his present -150 chances.
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UFC 236 Historical Prelims
Welterweight Fight: Curtis Millender (+115) vs. Belal Muhammad (-145)
Millender fought just last month at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos, ultimately losing by entry (rear-naked choke) into Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Muhammad continues to be busy, as he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Geoff Neal back in January in UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw. Millender boasts three and four inch height and reach advantages, respectively, although Muhammad continues to be much more of a takedown threat throughout his UFC career.
Bantamweight Fight: Montel Jackson (-550) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (+375)
Jackson opened the week as a -500 favored, but has since moved higher. He’s the biggest favorite on the card. Soukhamthath is 13-6 as a skilled and has been fed to Jackson, who has lost just once in eight career bouts.
Girls Strawweight Fight: Lauren Mueller (+145) vs. Poliana Botelho (-175)
Both of these women have high striking rates and do not waste their time getting started. This is very true for Botelho, who notched the third-fastest finish in the history of the UFC women’s branch back in May, 2018.
Bantamweight Fight: Brandon Davis (-170) vs. Randy Costa (+140)
Costa is undefeated in four professional conflicts, while Davis is only 9-5. Both fighters are making a debut of sorts, as Costa will probably be inside the octagon for the very first time in his career, while Davis has seemingly never fought at 135 lbs.
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